Since I'll be at Opening Day in Cleveland on Friday (yeah, it's Good Friday...no hot dogs), it's time to look at the Tribe's chances for 2009. Last year, if you recall, I was pretty close in my analysis of the club but picked them for 89 wins and no playoffs, despite all of their shortcomings. They only won 81 in 2008.

Well, how bout it, what about this year?

The biggest challenge probably comes from Tom Hamilton's favorite team, the White Sox and of course, the Twins. I think Kansas City and Detroit will be better this season, so I don't see anyone really cleaning up in the division. But it may be only 10 games separating first from last here.

But every club in the Central has issues. The Twins need Joe Mauer and Scott Baker to be healthy. Chicago needs starting pitching. My God, they are counting on Bartolo Colon. But their bullpen is the best in the division, those starters may need to go only 6 innings. Detroit needs Justin Verlander to be better, as well as their bullpen. The Royals were picked by the USA Today guy to win the division. Quick, name 5 Royals or even their manager (Hah, Trey Hillman).

Let's start with the two players who are on the team only because of their contracts, Masa Kobayashi and David Delucci. The Indians are not shy about admitting mistakes early in the season (typically 40 games), especially if they are in the last or only year of their contracts. Look it up. Brady Anderson, Jason Johnson, even Joe Borowski were let go with some financial commitment remaining. Delucci starts the season on the disabled list. If his replacement, Trevor Crowe, gets a few at-bats and produces, Delucci will have a short timeframe to produce. Admit it, the Indians were sold a bill of goods on Kobayashi. Hyped as a "potential closer", this guy ran out of gas by August 1. In fact, he was terrible. If the Tribe gets off to anything resembling a decent start and he's ineffective, I see him gone by the All-Star break, if not sooner.

Outfield: Grady Sizemore is in center. Every stat whiz says Eric Wedge was correct when he said "hitting .300 isn't that big a deal". So, maybe we are happy with our .270 hitting superstar. Hell, Terry Pluto predicted him for MVP this year. To do that, he'll have to overcome what I really think are his core weaknesses, his .169 Late Inning Pressure average and .205 average from the seventh inning on.

Is it safe to say, question marks at both corners? Ben Francisco did alright, but tailed off late last year. Is Shin-Soo Choo really that good or is he "The Asian Trot Nixon"? I'd love to see Choo make it, he really surprised me last year. This is Francisco's big shot to find out what he can do. Any regression and he's done as a future Indian. As I said, a big chance for Crowe. Will be sent down upon Delucci's return, but could be back quickly if/when Delucci fails. Don't forget, Mark DeRosa and Ryan Garko will also get some PT in the outfield.

Infield: The Indians should be OK up the middle this year. I hope Asdrubal Cabrera shows the stick he showed late last year, we know he has the glove and hopefully, a new necklace this season. Jhonny Peralta still remains the "Most Disappointing Indian In The Fans' Eyes Who Actually Produces Every Year." At third is newcomer Mark DeRosa. DeRosa, easily the most popular Cub the last two years, will fill that role for the Indians. We are actually lucky to have him. Will easily surpass the Casey Blake role on and off the field. At first, we will have mainly Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko. I like Victor, but he has to show more power than he did last season. Remember, he hit only 2 homers and 17 doubles last season. We need him to regain his previous form. Ryan Garko, he of 90 RBIs last season, will get some DH/Outfield/First Base time. The elf, Jamey Carroll, backs up everyone in the infield. Josh Barfield, the light-hitting wonder, will play both infield and outfield, but probably will lead the team in least at-bats.

This is probably as good a time to talk about all of the maneuverability Eric Wedge has this season. I sense this is a bad thing. Because, in his mind, everyone is capable at several positions, I bet we will see an outfield of Barfield, Sizemore and Garko at some time this season. We'll see more pinch runners replacing better hitters, then the game will remained tied and we'll see Josh Barfield in the cleanup spot, come the 11th inning. Trust me when I tell ya, this will cost us a game early in the season.

That leaves Travis Hafner as DH. Omigod, this could be a disaster. I'm afraid the 40 homer, 120 RBI seasons are a thing of the past. So, what would be acceptable for a guy with the largest contract in Indians history? First of all, get that BB/K ratio back to the glory days. But listen, 20 homers and 75 RBI won't cut it for what we pay him. Garko can do that at a much cheaper pay rate. Will probably be the most talked about Indian this season, reagrdless of his production.

Starting Pitching: Not the team's strength. We need a combined 35 wins out of Fausto Carmona and Cliff Lee to have any chance. Lee had a terrible spring. Carmona seemed to regain some of his better form. No way Lee matches what he did last year. If he does, he is a bonafide star we lose when his contract is up. A rebound year by Carmona may offset a slight decline by Lee. After that, it's a tossup. Carl Pavano has been hurt for about 4 years and can you count on the guy at #3? Seriously, if you get 10 wins from him, Mark Shapiro is a god. Both Anthony Reyes at #4 and Scott Lewis at #5 threw well late last season when it didn't matter. I expect more from Reyes than Lewis. After Lewis was named a starter this spring, he started giving up gopher balls. Lewis was 4-0 in September last season, but even Scott Elarton was 5-0 in September several years ago, but it counted when he did it. Of course, on the farm, we have semi-failures Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey in waiting.

Bullpen: I actually see some hope here. Kerry Wood is a big-time closer. I am not fearful of his injured past. Well, actually I am, but I do think he'll be fine. He was on the DL once last year and it was not arm-related. He was an excellent pickup. I am not a fan of Jensen Lewis, but I do realize he was pretty good down the stretch last season. Again, when it meant nothing. Early on, he sucked. I do like Rafael Perez. He'll never equal his 2007 season, but he was pretty tough from June on last year. Rafael Betancourt? Jeezy creezy, he was worse than Kobayashi for about 90% of last year. If he is 50% as bad as last year, that will be a major improvement. I am not familiar with Joe Smith's work. Well, I am, but that was Cavalier Joe Smith, not this guy. The type of guy the Indians will open up the stat book on, in case he fails early. I'll point that out when it happens. The other reliever is Zach Jackson. Yawn.

Catcher: Very disappointed the Indians did not move Kelly Shoppach in the offseason, as his value was at its peak. Because this is the year he will be exposed for what he has become. His numbers throwing out runners have been declining and he whiffs way too much. Really his strikeout rate is alarming. I think we will see a lot more Victor Martinez behind the plate than originally planned.

In an off season where the Indians added two Cubs, Wood and DeRosa, I am predicting 88 wins this year and October baseball. I think in a tight race, they will make it in. But they just as easily could finish third again.

Here is what the Beacon thinks.

Meal of Links

Michael Bay Eating Breakfast



Humor makes you funnier and sexier. Plus, why do we swear? Pretty goddamn long articles, but fuckin' worth the time.

Here are the worst drive-thru foods in America. There actually is a good tip in there. Whopper Jr. sans mayo is 290 calories instead of the BK Chick-N-Crisp which is the worst value meal item.

To save some clicks, other horror shows: Arby’s Roast Beef and Swiss Market Fresh Sandwich, Dairy Queen 6-Piece Chicken Strip Basket, Arby’s Large Mozzarella Sticks (same fat as a Triple Whopper), McDonald's Large Triple Thick Chocolate Milkshake, Arby's Roast Turkey and Swiss Market Fresh Sandwich.

Special mention to the worst-value meal: Carl’s Jr. Double Six Dollar Burger
with Medium Natural Cut Fries and 32 oz Coke. This meal has the caloric equivalent of 13 Krispy Kreme Original Glazed Donuts; the saturated fat equivalent of 52 strips of bacon; and the salt equivalent of seven and a half large orders of McDonald’s French fries! Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!

Cincinnati woman needs a man for manly duties. As Ron Burgundy says, "It's science."

Andy Kaufman Visits Dave...in the a.m.



Exercise Yard

If you thought the Browns had a terrible season...Randy Lerner's Other Team is trying to save itself from total collapse. Today, another win tossed aside late. Aston Villa loses to ManU, 3-2. As a 17-year old knocks in the game winner.

In other soccer news, Fox Soccer Channel picked up the Champions League for three years, starting in 2009-10. ESPN has handled that for a while. FSC will show two live games and three taped per week. The Fox Sports Nets get a live Tuesday game. FSC will probably use the announcers from the international feed and also have pre and postgame shows and a daily wrapup show. The final moves to Saturday in 2010 (World Cup next year, too) and will be on Fx. BTW, FSC plans to launch HD by the end of the year. We'll see if Time Warner wakes up and gets it.

Overall, I think that's good news because it keeps FSC in the game. Because I sense ESPN is tossing aside the Champions League to take a crack at the EPL.

Lastly, Setanta is apparently going to be launched nationally on Comcast. However, "they are still working on" Time Warner. Which means probably never.

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None, winter is calling!